Profit From Your Forecasting Software: A Best Practice Guide for Sales Forecasters

The book’s emphasis will be on: (i) discussing the advantages and disadvantages of alternative forecasting methods in different situations, (ii) showing users how to interpret and evaluate  the output of their software,  and (iii) providing guidance on when and how they  should  use  their judgment to intervene in the forecasting process. Accessible explanations of measures such as seasonal indices, smoothing coefficients, mean absolute percentage error, and r-squared will therefore be provided and the psychological biases that are associated with judgmental interventions in forecasting will be explored.

The book will address key practical questions such as:

• when, if ever, should management judgment be used to adjust or override a computer’s forecast;

• should I choose my own forecasting method or let the expert system in the software choose it;

• how should I use the software to handle product hierarchies or to plan safety stock levels; and

• how much past data should I use to fit and test my forecasting model?